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My coverage of Fitbit remained ongoing and public until Google's
purchase
of the company was complete.
I continue to cover Google in the private section of the website.
I originally classified FIT as moving from a Growth toward a GRoDT
stock, despite a fairly solid balance sheet. This is because I
saw fitness trackers as a dying device category, and the company's
ability to compete in more general purpose wearables as unproven.
Nonetheless, I projected that the company could design
best-in-class hardware, and I think the Ionic smart watch bears me
out on that point. Software is another matter, but the
acquisition of Pebble (amongst other) assets at VERY
favorable terms gave me hope on that front. Unfortunately, FitBit
really failed
to deliver in terms of software. My real-world research on
both the Ionic
and Versa
smartwatches enabled CrowdWisers to be way
out ahead in predicting the company's lackluster results as
it tried to maintain market share while developing partnerships
against competitors with deeper pockets. That in turn enabled a
profitable exit despite the failed growth story.
The situation after that led many to swing trade volatility in
FIT, but my
experience on Wall St. tells me that is a dangerous game
which, over the longer term, usually winds up benefiting Big Money
rather than individual investors. The limited volumes associated
with pre-merger arbitrage are an entirely different story, though,
and can lead to substantial opportunities of the sort that emerged
with INVN,
which is why my coverage always continues until a deal is actually
closed.
Updates: |
?4 |
Google Fitbit purchase complete, 4Q20 schedule, more | 09:37 14-Jan-21 |
-3 |
ACCC rejects Google concessions for Fitbit and more | 11:37 22-Dec-20 |
+2 |
Tina vs Eve: thoughts on inequality | 00:46 07-Dec-20 |
-2 |
Xebec stock incentives and value updates | 09:57 21-Sep-20 |
+2 |
post-pandemic value thoughts | 14:51 02-Sep-20 |
+2 |
Resonant switches to KPMG and new Fitbit watches | 14:14 25-Aug-20 |
?3 |
Fitbit subscriptions and Resonant dilution | 09:45 18-Aug-20 |
?2 |
EMAN short squeeze, MACom products and MX OMIBs | 19:31 05-Aug-20 |
-3 |
full E.U. antitrust probe for Google+Fitbit? | 11:20 04-Aug-20 |
-2 |
ABB 2Q20 estimates and troubling thoughts | 09:16 20-Jul-20 |
?2 |
Covanta & Clearway 2Q20 schedules and much more | 08:27 15-Jul-20 |
?3 |
Fitbit and other regulatory notes | 13:11 19-Jun-20 |
?3 |
Fitbit & macro update | 13:05 04-Jun-20 |
?2 |
Vodafone 4Q20 schedule, OLED & new normal implications | 06:19 04-May-20 |
?4 |
Fitbit & Google 1Q20 schedules | 07:45 27-Apr-20 |
?2 |
market calendar and minor news | 09:42 15-Apr-20 |
+3 |
ADP, Fitbit Charge, and more | 09:06 02-Apr-20 |
+3 |
Sanders, Biden and Fitbit | 12:30 11-Mar-20 |
?3 |
Super Tuesday and Fitbit arbitrage calendar | 16:39 03-Mar-20 |
?3 |
Fitbit 4Q19 results and more | 16:17 20-Feb-20 |
?3 |
Fitbit 4Q19 schedule and confirmations | 18:19 11-Feb-20 |
-3 |
Fitbit named in broad patent investigation | 15:00 11-Jan-20 |
+2 |
Himax 4Q19 projection plus CES & more Ebix | 11:45 07-Jan-20 |
?3 |
FIT and record markets | 13:52 27-Dec-19 |
?2 |
more follow-up on VUZI, CTL and the Fitbit spread | 10:19 15-Nov-19 |
+5 |
Fitbit sold to Google and AMSC 2Q19 schedule | 09:29 01-Nov-19 |
?2 |
Ebix 3Q19 schedule & value down the macro path | 09:30 29-Oct-19 |
?3 |
FIT short squeeze unlikely | 10:05 23-Sep-19 |
-4 |
VOD, FIT and macro follow-up possibilities | 06:52 01-Aug-19 |
?2 |
Fitbit schedules 1Q19 report and new candidate | 17:17 16-Apr-19 |
-4 |
Fitbit 4Q18 results | 16:30 27-Feb-19 |
-2 |
energy markets, CUI and global trading | 10:17 07-Dec-18 |
+5 |
Fitbit 3Q18 results | 16:37 31-Oct-18 |
?3 |
Fitbit schedules 3Q18 report | 17:22 16-Oct-18 |
?2 |
pre-jobs report news flush | 19:04 04-Oct-18 |
+3 |
Fitbit Care and Humana | 10:24 19-Sep-18 |
+2 |
Fitbit 2Q18 results | 16:57 01-Aug-18 |
?2 |
Fitbit schedules 2Q18 report | 20:17 17-Jul-18 |
?2 |
mergers, OMIBs, telecoms and rates | 06:11 14-Jun-18 |
?2 |
Fitbit, AES and BGC thoughts | 09:44 06-Jun-18 |
+2 |
electronics and the trade war | 10:03 04-Jun-18 |
?4 |
Versa and the Race Against Time | 20:29 28-May-18 |
-2 |
MicroVision schedules 1Q18 report and Fitbit followup | 18:58 02-May-18 |
?2 |
Fitbit 1Q18 results | 17:07 02-May-18 |
+4 |
Fitbit+Google, Resonant 1Q18 schedule and more | 09:33 30-Apr-18 |
-3 |
FitBit outage and GasPT certification | 05:54 25-Apr-18 |
?3 |
Fitbit schedules 1Q18 report | 19:55 16-Apr-18 |
+3 |
Versa and Ace official | 09:21 13-Mar-18 |
?2 |
Fitbit Versa plus competition and pricing notes | 06:49 09-Mar-18 |
?2 |
macro follow up plus FIT & CUI notes | 09:31 05-Mar-18 |
?2 |
follow up earnings and CEO thoughts | 19:48 27-Feb-18 |
-4 |
Fitbit 4Q17 report | 16:52 26-Feb-18 |
?3 |
Resonant schedules 4Q17 report and more | 03:16 19-Feb-18 |
?3 |
Fitbit acquires Twine Health | 09:36 13-Feb-18 |
?3 |
Fitbit schedules 4Q17 report | 11:20 09-Feb-18 |
-3 |
OLED and FIT followup | 13:25 24-Jan-18 |
?4 |
CES-inspired macro thoughts | 18:43 15-Jan-18 |
-2 |
stock pricing notes | 16:10 06-Dec-17 |
-5 |
Fitbit software outlook | 19:09 03-Dec-17 |
?3 |
Fitbit 3Q17 report | 02:09 02-Nov-17 |
-4 |
Fitbit pre-earnings wrap-up and article | 02:02 23-Oct-17 |
?3 |
Fitbit schedules 3Q17 report plus more AMOLED news | 23:33 19-Oct-17 |
-3 |
Ionic review | 23:40 15-Oct-17 |
-3 |
FitBit competition, AES dividend and macro | 09:27 13-Oct-17 |
+4 |
Fitbit part of FDA pilot program | 13:36 26-Sep-17 |
?4 |
Ionic available Oct 1, SDK tomorrow | 10:26 25-Sep-17 |
+3 |
Dexcom Glucose monitoring on Ionic and FIT OMIB | 09:31 07-Sep-17 |
?2 |
another pick list update | 09:29 01-Sep-17 |
+5 |
Fitbit Ionic, Flyer and Aria2 launch | 09:27 28-Aug-17 |
+3 |
an example FIT valuation | 19:42 21-Aug-17 |
+3 |
FitBit potential & CTL explanation | 00:34 20-Aug-17 |
+3 |
Fitbit 2Q17 report | 17:48 02-Aug-17 |
?3 |
FitBit 2Q17 preview and more CTL | 13:01 25-Jul-17 |
?2 |
CenturyLink 2Q17 schedule, plus Resonant and FitBit news | 23:05 22-Jun-17 |
?4 |
pick list earnings and schedule | 23:47 25-May-17 |
?2 |
pick list news and pricing | 11:00 11-Apr-17 |
?3 |
pick list news and market outlook | 14:42 04-Apr-17 |
?3 |
stock pricing and the electronics and political horizons | 09:01 27-Feb-17 |