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Fitbit subscriptions and Resonant dilution ?3
Resonant has followed up its recent press releases with word that its n79 XBAR 5G filter has been manufactured by two separate partners using standard SAW processes. This is a big deal as the simpler process is cheaper and more reliable, but I think this morning's trading action in RESN shows the effect of the equity sales detailed below. Shares bounced around above $3 in the pre-market, touching up to $3.60 at one point, but have been declining below $3 after the bell. They could still run higher as the ATM program paces sales, but investors should keep in mind that the associated filer auction in the U.S. begins on December 8th. Thus any stateside revenue from this would start in the second half of next year, and I've already laid out my concerns about China.
The note below also should have mentioned that the ACC has delayed its decision on Fitbit+Google to align with the EU review.
On 8/17/20 11:53 AM, Esekla wrote:
Fitbit has announced that it has signed up over half a million paid subscribers to its Premium coaching plan. This represents less than 2% of the company's active users and half a percent of its revenue, based on 29.6M active users at the start of the year. The resulting $4.5-6M in annual revenue for the company, depending on whether subsribers commit to a year or not is not exactly impressive for Fitbit and trivial to Google.
However, the opportunity for user outreach does have significance for the would-be purchaser, though, as Google's existing business will draw ever-increasing scrutiny from regulators, and hopefully consumers. Its phone business will also suffer from the East-West divide. Fitbit's service is set to add 7 more languages this year, and Google can probably improve Fitbit's mediocre traction outside America. None of this changes my projection for the deal closing in May, which makes FIT somewhat overpriced even with recent declines.
On Friday, we also saw Resonant file to sell another $25M worth of shares at-the-market. That accounts for the initial 4% decline in shares, and perhaps the addition of an advisory board member from Qorvo accounts for the recovery. The juxtaposition just reinforces my impression that management has no regard for ordinary shareholders. As per my comments on the latest earnings report and all along, it's all about the revenue to ramp over the next year or so. If Resonant progresses more slowly than it forecasts or if China copies its technology, I have little doubt RESN will take a course similar to its sibling.