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My coverage of Fitbit remained ongoing and public until Google's
purchase
of the company was complete.
I continue to cover Google in the private section of the website.
I originally classified FIT as moving from a Growth toward a GRoDT
stock, despite a fairly solid balance sheet. This is because I
saw fitness trackers as a dying device category, and the company's
ability to compete in more general purpose wearables as unproven.
Nonetheless, I projected that the company could design
best-in-class hardware, and I think the Ionic smart watch bears me
out on that point. Software is another matter, but the
acquisition of Pebble (amongst other) assets at VERY
favorable terms gave me hope on that front. Unfortunately, FitBit
really failed
to deliver in terms of software. My real-world research on
both the Ionic
and Versa
smartwatches enabled CrowdWisers to be way
out ahead in predicting the company's lackluster results as
it tried to maintain market share while developing partnerships
against competitors with deeper pockets. That in turn enabled a
profitable exit despite the failed growth story.
The situation after that led many to swing trade volatility in
FIT, but my
experience on Wall St. tells me that is a dangerous game
which, over the longer term, usually winds up benefiting Big Money
rather than individual investors. The limited volumes associated
with pre-merger arbitrage are an entirely different story, though,
and can lead to substantial opportunities of the sort that emerged
with INVN,
which is why my coverage always continues until a deal is actually
closed.
Updates: |
?4 |
Google Fitbit purchase complete, 4Q20 schedule, more | 09:37 14-Jan-21 |
-3 |
ACCC rejects Google concessions for Fitbit and more | 11:37 22-Dec-20 |
+1 |
Resonant passes 50M unit mark and more | 17:10 17-Dec-20 |
+2 |
Tina vs Eve: thoughts on inequality | 00:46 07-Dec-20 |
+1 |
Resonant and WiFi, plus Google & Clearway news | 15:17 20-Nov-20 |
?1 |
AMSC and Fitbit schedules, plus Google notes | 21:08 28-Oct-20 |
-1 |
governments and Google | 09:14 12-Oct-20 |
+1 |
Vuzix Blade Upgraded available & Golar update | 08:04 01-Oct-20 |
-2 |
Xebec stock incentives and value updates | 09:57 21-Sep-20 |
+1 |
telecoms and governments | 10:33 14-Sep-20 |
+2 |
post-pandemic value thoughts | 14:51 02-Sep-20 |
+2 |
Resonant switches to KPMG and new Fitbit watches | 14:14 25-Aug-20 |
?3 |
Fitbit subscriptions and Resonant dilution | 09:45 18-Aug-20 |
?2 |
EMAN short squeeze, MACom products and MX OMIBs | 19:31 05-Aug-20 |
-3 |
full E.U. antitrust probe for Google+Fitbit? | 11:20 04-Aug-20 |
?1 |
Schlumberger 2Q20 results, WFS schedule and much more | 09:39 24-Jul-20 |
-2 |
ABB 2Q20 estimates and troubling thoughts | 09:16 20-Jul-20 |
?2 |
Covanta & Clearway 2Q20 schedules and much more | 08:27 15-Jul-20 |
+1 |
follow through on expectations | 13:26 09-Jul-20 |
-1 |
Vuzix and Google thoughts | 13:44 02-Jul-20 |
?3 |
Fitbit and other regulatory notes | 13:11 19-Jun-20 |
?3 |
Fitbit & macro update | 13:05 04-Jun-20 |
?1 |
Ebix 1Q20 schedule and India health notes | 15:51 06-May-20 |
?2 |
Vodafone 4Q20 schedule, OLED & new normal implications | 06:19 04-May-20 |
?4 |
Fitbit & Google 1Q20 schedules | 07:45 27-Apr-20 |
?2 |
market calendar and minor news | 09:42 15-Apr-20 |
+3 |
ADP, Fitbit Charge, and more | 09:06 02-Apr-20 |
+1 |
CUI acquisition, jobs, ABB dividend & Vodafone towers official & more | 09:06 26-Mar-20 |
+3 |
Sanders, Biden and Fitbit | 12:30 11-Mar-20 |
?3 |
Super Tuesday and Fitbit arbitrage calendar | 16:39 03-Mar-20 |
?1 |
VOD OMIB and other values | 16:47 27-Feb-20 |
?3 |
Fitbit 4Q19 results and more | 16:17 20-Feb-20 |
?3 |
Fitbit 4Q19 schedule and confirmations | 18:19 11-Feb-20 |
?1 |
India rejects Vodafone & fluff news | 11:55 16-Jan-20 |
?1 |
VUZI OMIBs and other follow-ups | 11:07 14-Jan-20 |
-3 |
Fitbit named in broad patent investigation | 15:00 11-Jan-20 |
?1 |
macro, value and Nokia | 11:54 09-Jan-20 |
+2 |
Himax 4Q19 projection plus CES & more Ebix | 11:45 07-Jan-20 |
?1 |
reaction to Soleimani | 15:31 03-Jan-20 |
?3 |
FIT and record markets | 13:52 27-Dec-19 |
?1 |
looking through December with telecom dividends and Ebix | 17:59 21-Nov-19 |
?2 |
more follow-up on VUZI, CTL and the Fitbit spread | 10:19 15-Nov-19 |
+5 |
Fitbit sold to Google and AMSC 2Q19 schedule | 09:29 01-Nov-19 |
?2 |
Ebix 3Q19 schedule & value down the macro path | 09:30 29-Oct-19 |
?1 |
new AMSC grid proposal, Fitbit 3Q19 schedule and CVA follow-up | 16:47 22-Oct-19 |
?3 |
FIT short squeeze unlikely | 10:05 23-Sep-19 |
-4 |
VOD, FIT and macro follow-up possibilities | 06:52 01-Aug-19 |
?1 |
Vodafone Liberty deal and other unsurprising news | 07:55 18-Jul-19 |
?2 |
Fitbit schedules 1Q19 report and new candidate | 17:17 16-Apr-19 |
?1 |
telecom OMIBs and value update | 18:37 06-Mar-19 |
-4 |
Fitbit 4Q18 results | 16:30 27-Feb-19 |
-1 |
new Resonant licenses and the mobile market | 09:07 03-Jan-19 |
+1 |
Resonant adds a customer, plus CTL, FIT and energy market thoughts | 09:32 18-Dec-18 |
-2 |
energy markets, CUI and global trading | 10:17 07-Dec-18 |
+5 |
Fitbit 3Q18 results | 16:37 31-Oct-18 |
?3 |
Fitbit schedules 3Q18 report | 17:22 16-Oct-18 |
?2 |
pre-jobs report news flush | 19:04 04-Oct-18 |
+1 |
CUI Samson agreement, OMIB and more macro | 09:37 20-Sep-18 |
+3 |
Fitbit Care and Humana | 10:24 19-Sep-18 |
-1 |
Renesas to buy IDT for $49 per share & FIT updates | 07:08 11-Sep-18 |
+1 |
new product, FOMC and CTL thoughts | 11:22 21-Aug-18 |
+1 |
AES LNG terminal the 1st of many? not so fast... | 14:13 17-Aug-18 |