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Fitbit 4Q19 results and more ?3

16:17 20-Feb-20


Fitbit results for its fourth quarter are public:
As I've long predicted, Fitbit is having to sell more devices for less.  Maybe that works well for ownership by Alphabet, though shares are initially down 9 cents to $6.35.  There is no conference call due to that, but there is plenty of news, or at least noise, on that front.  Statements from the E.U. are best ignored, in my opinion.  While the concerns are valid, they're also reiterations of a stance we've known all along.  At worst, they signal delay, which was always expected, as Google makes assurances about anonymizing data.  Consequently, I'll increase my arbitrage position as the dip extends, because...

A more subtly relevant development is the current U.S. administration overtly siding with Oracle in the Supreme Court case on Java copyrights.  I note that the purchase of Fitbit could be regarded as a hedge against Google losing this case, as it probably will.  In such an event, Fitbit would be more valuable not just for the user data that the E.U. is so concerned about, but also for the APIs that it uses and acquired from Pebble, Vector and Coin.  To be clear: this is a case where Google is on the wrong side of the law because the law is wrong.  I left programming as my main source of income behind long ago largely because of such issues.  Google subsequently left behind its "Don't be evil" motto, but there are degrees of evil.