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Super Tuesday and Fitbit arbitrage calendar ?3

16:39 03-Mar-20


In its recent 10-K Fitbit detailed the calendar set by the ITC for the patent infringement claim filed by Philipps:
On January 21, 2020, ALJ Lord set key dates for the case, including a Markman hearing on May 27, 2020, the Evidentiary hearing from October 5-9, 2020, the Initial Determination by January 14, 2021, and the Target Date for completion of the investigation on May 14, 2021.
The Initial Determination date looks most relevant to me, and I continue to see Google's SCotUS case, scheduled to begin on March 24th, as the nearest important event.  I think consummation of the deal is 85% likely in the event of a Google loss, without which Alphabet would be a little less determined.  However, handicapping the regulatory hurdles is a political exercise.  Super Tuesday primary results should be rolling in around mid-day Wednesday.  Bloomberg success would be the best option, followed by Biden, Warren and Sanders.  A Trump election win is probably worst.

The nominal spread has been bounding around 15%, and that can be enhanced in the current market with hedging.  Just in case I'm wrong...  Fitbit has $518.5M in cash on the balance sheet and its Book Value is a little over $2 per share.  However, if you add in the $250M breakup fee, that value increases by over a dollar.  Keep in mind that Fitbit had other bidders as well.  So, although the potential downside is substantial, the risk/reward is clearly favorable.  I'll get around to posting this to the public side of the website soon, along with the SCON and MVIS sections.