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Fitbit schedules 3Q17 report plus more AMOLED news ?3


Fitbit has scheduled the report on its third quarter to take place after market close on Wednesday, November 1st.  The average of analyst estimates calls for a loss of 4 cents per share on $392M in revenue.  Guidance should be more important as revenue for the current quarter is estimated at $578M, on average.

To my mind, this presents an interesting conundrum... Those numbers seem a rather low.  If we back them through my example valuation, they imply only a little over 3M Ionics and/or virtually no Flyers sold by year-end.  That's not much more than half of the level I had (admittedly arbitrarily) labeled as success.  As a result, my guess is that the upcoming report still carries more upside potential for FIT shareholders than risk.  At the same time, I'm still getting the last of the feedback in from my reviewers, and that continues to paint a medium-term picture that isn't especially positive.  The feedback will be complete and written up by this Monday morning.  I'm not a fan of trying to time the market in any case, and I've always labeled FIT a GRoDT opportunity.  So, I figure those who took the chance are probably inclined to carry it through this report as well.  What I can say for now is this: given the greater and more immediate potential volatility for FIT, I will probably prioritize that call over MagnaChip's, which occurs at the same time.  It will be something of a last minute decision, and there may even be some back and forth, because...

The iPhone X issues and LCD competition that I just wrote about in conjunction with Universal Display's upcoming report are taking their toll on MX shares, carrying them somewhat below the $11.10 neighborhood that I had anticipated.  The hits keep on coming with news of that competition extending to television back-lighting and Wisconsin putting the brakes on the FoxConn deal, as anticipated.  The latter event is even more negative for UDC than MagnaChip, with a Democratic Senator going so far as to call a clause in the contract a "nuclear bomb".  However, MX may already be pricing in these developments, whereas OLED shares don't seem to be at all.  You almost certainly won't hear about any of it in the UDC call the following evening, and that makes the numeric guidance from MagnaChip management all the more valuable to both sets of shareholders.  No matter what, I'll have full analysis for both the MagnaChip and Fitbit reports out by morning.