--- the subscriber area has no ads and those above are not selected or endorsed by this site ---
Fitbit schedules 3Q17 report plus more AMOLED news ?3
23:33 19-Oct-17
Fitbit has scheduled the report on its third quarter to take place after market close on Wednesday, November 1st. The average of analyst estimates calls for a loss of 4 cents per share on $392M in revenue. Guidance should be more important as revenue for the current quarter is estimated at $578M, on average.
To my mind, this presents an interesting conundrum... Those
numbers seem a rather low. If we back them through my example
valuation, they imply only a little over 3M Ionics and/or
virtually no Flyers sold by year-end. That's not much more than
half of the level I had (admittedly arbitrarily) labeled as
success. As a result, my guess is that the upcoming report still
carries more upside potential for FIT shareholders than risk. At
the same time, I'm still getting the last of the feedback in from
my reviewers, and that continues to paint a medium-term picture
that isn't especially positive. The feedback will be complete and
written up by this Monday morning. I'm not a fan of trying to
time the market in any case, and I've always labeled FIT a GRoDT
opportunity. So, I figure those who took the chance are probably
inclined to carry it through this report as well. What I can say
for now is this: given the greater and more immediate potential
volatility for FIT, I will probably prioritize that call over
MagnaChip's, which occurs at the same time. It will be something
of a last minute decision, and there may even be some back and
forth, because...
The iPhone X issues and LCD competition
that I just wrote about in conjunction with Universal Display's
upcoming report are taking their toll on MX shares, carrying them
somewhat below the $11.10 neighborhood that I had anticipated.
The hits keep on coming with news of that competition extending
to television back-lighting and Wisconsin putting
the brakes on the FoxConn deal, as anticipated. The latter
event is even more negative for UDC than MagnaChip, with a
Democratic Senator going so far as to call a clause in the
contract a "nuclear
bomb". However, MX may already be pricing in these
developments, whereas OLED shares don't seem to be at all. You
almost certainly won't hear about any of it in the UDC call the
following evening, and that makes the numeric guidance from
MagnaChip management all the more valuable to both sets of
shareholders. No matter what, I'll have full analysis for both
the MagnaChip and Fitbit reports out by morning.