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Ebix started as a supplier of software and e-commerce solutions to the insurance industry. However, it branched aggressively into payment, logistics, e-learning, and travel services. My interest began in late 2018 due to the high (albeit debt-fueled) growth and heavy (50%+) exposure to India, which I saw at the time as arguably the world's most attractive emerging market.
Unfortunately,
that came with all sorts regulatory and geopolitical risks. I
was particularly critical of management in the wake of the
pandemic, even as Ebix was planning to IPO its EbixCash
subsidiary in India. By April of 2020, I began warning about
the debt time bomb in combination with
those moves. That pattern continued through the summer of 2023,
by which point the IPO was years behind schedule, and my view
was completely divergent with the market
valuation. The final nail for me came on the morning of October
2nd 2023, via a forbearance agreement with the
lenders. The market initially took that as a sign of relief,
but my base case was already that shareholders would be
completely wiped out, and that was eventually shown to be
correct. EBIX stands as an example of how early warning on
management BS can sometimes be the most valuable facet of this
service.
Updates: | ||
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-8 | Ebix bankruptcy and more | 08:58 20-Dec-23 |