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INVN tomorrow and beyond ?1

19:08 28-Oct-15


Some subscribers are asking for a projection on INVN price movement.

As always, I personally prefer to focus on the long term while avoiding over-concentration and leverage.  I think it should already be obvious that I think the long term prospects have improved going into next year.  In terms of valuation, the hybrid PE for the company minus net cash is 13, which is still fairly cheap.  In light of that, I'm not very concerned about INVN price movement tomorrow, at least not until it happens.  I find that it's generally good to be in a situation where one can be unconcerned and reactive to unreasonable market extremes, like we saw when I called the low.

For those who must focus on the short term, the short answer is, I don't know. 

The longer answer is that I was looking for a more straightforward market reaction and the headline #s were only modestly good.  So, I would expect at least modest improvement from recent pricing, but we've already seen that.  As already communicated, I don't see any market positioning that should push the stock much one way or the other, so further movement in INVN probably depends on how much and quickly the market recognizes the progress and opportunities that management has laid out for the long term.  They went a long way towards convincing me, but that's no guarantee.  I'm sorry I can't be more definitive, but hopefully this is better than being wrong.