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iPhone 6S prototype and INVN market data ?4

21:25 05-Jul-15


A subscriber notes that photos of a prototype iPhone 6s circuit board have surfaced.  They supposedly show the same InvenSense and Bosch motion chip kludge that we saw in current models.  Although I can't verify that from the photos, here is the relevant text from the article:

Although the prototype includes what appear to be similar Bosch and InvenSense accelerometer and gyroscope parts to the iPhone 6, ChipWorks speculates that a tiny new alternative from STMicroelectronics could replace it on the final logic board, having debuted in the Apple Watch.

  Although I agree that this evidence doesn't do much to deter replacement worries, I'd still say the finding is a vague positive for InvenSense.  I also think that The Watch isn't much reason to speculate on replacement; it simply showed that we won't really to be sure of much until there is an actual product teardown.  My reading of product spec sheets indicated that, for integrated gyro chips, STMicro has become competitive with InvenSense in terms of power consumption, form factor, etc. but it does not lead.  In my opinion, Apple is likely to simply take the best deal it can get for its larger mobile products, regardless of performance anyway.  It remains to be seen how much value Firefly will add for other customers; I think we can be pretty sure Apple won't use it for phones or tablets.

  An unrelated data point is that while the most recent bi-monthly short data showed a decrease in shorted float that was much less than I was expecting, the rebate rate is now down well below 2%.  I note that the stock didn't actually move much from June 5 to 15.  It was after that where we saw the bump up above $16.  That has since been given back, which is consistent with my thoughts that INVN will be left more susceptible to broader market whims than it previously was.  It may be that the next report, due at the end of the week, will show more of a decline in shorted float, as I was expecting.  If not, that would shade my interpretation even more toward my theory that most of the bi-monthly numbers we've been seeing aren't real short bets.  Whether we see a big change in reported shorted float or not, though, it won't change my outlook much.  The chip photo can be taken as a positive, but I'd caution against inferring too much from it.