Another adjustment on yesterday's numbers...

As of the end of December, Apple says it had sold 665M iPhones, so that means it has sold 35M so far this quarter and is on track to top 45M.  So the income calculation becomes:

45.5M phones x $0.85 per part x 17% margin / 92.3M shares = 7.1 cents per INVN share

which is a lot more reasonable.

Since Apple constituted 45% of sales in the prior quarter, it's still easy to predict that InvenSense is primed for an EPS beat in this quarter, especially considering the Galaxy S6 rollout.

As noted by two subscribers, it appears I am wrong about how the Siri is activated via the Watch.  It is reported to use the combination of gesture and voice recognition that I've been looking for.  I think this improves the chances of InvenSense getting a more valuable SoC and microphone win for the Watch.

Esekla

On 03/09/2015 03:41 PM, Esekla wrote:

The most important piece of information revealed in today's event was that Apple has recently surpassed 700M iPhones sold.  That represents 49% YoY sales growth, while the broader industry is at 26%.  From this we can infer that Apple is on track crush estimates by UBS and sell more than 87M phones in the current quarter.

2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	Total
1.39	11.63	20.73	39.99	72.29	125.05	150.26	191.43	612.77

Numbers in millions, data from Statista and TechCrunch

The blow out sales might be attributable to the Chinese Lunar New Year and delayed global rollout, but even so, I have to wonder if something is wrong with my numbers.  If they are right, that would be 87M phones x $0.85 per part x 17% margin / 92.3M shares = 13.6 cents per INVN share from iPhones alone in the current quarter.  Analysts are only expecting InvenSense to earn 12 cents per share on average.

The only downside I saw is that Siri activates by holding the crown of the Watch, which indicates to me that even if InvenSense did get a microphone win there, it will be one of the older models with pricing that's nothing to get excited about.