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Xebec stock incentives and value updates ?3

09:57 21-Sep-20


Xebec has granted 66.2K shares, which vest between now and June, to directors of the board and a consultant.  The dilution here is modest at a little over half a percent.  So, any extreme drop in conjunction with the current market pullback would be unwarranted.  Any investors who missed out on earlier buying opportunities might want to keep an eye out as Shell and other European oil majors continue the push to transition their business models.

In the U.S. the situation is different.  Though, New Jersey just passed supposedly landmark "environmental justice" legislation, my familiarity with the state's corruption leads me to see the law as a barrier to further green development.  Perhaps this is why Covanta, whose next ex-dividend date is this Friday, September 25th, is applauding the move.  CVA has declined as expected, but I still see it as at least slightly overpriced.

America also isn't exactly pulling together over the death of Ruth Ginsburg, but the battle over her replacement is refocusing attention on partisan politics and policies.  In the real world, COVID-19 continues to spread.  BBC has an excellent breakdown by country, and the European Commission has graphs by continent.  As I've anticipated, India is expected to overtake the U.S. as the worst hit country in the world.  This validates my dump of EBIX and makes me discount the press release about travel and forex leadership, even though the insurance moves are a mitigating factor.  For the overall market, stimulus (or lack thereof) will be more important, and CNET has assembled a calendar of possible vote dates before the election, though there is little sign of agreement so far.

I'm also staying away from FIT for the time being, as we can expect evidence of competition from Apple's new value-priced watches, especially on the international stage.  That doesn't affect the chances of Google closing its buyout in my eyes, but I continue to think that expectations for that happening in November are off base.

Instead, NOK has finally dropped below my price target in conjunction with sell-off of European markets.  The company is joining others in calling for greater international cooperation and continues to be ranked #1 in telecom software & services.  Only the price change is material to me, and Nokia still has a tough road ahead.  So, I'll be cautious about rebuilding a NOK position and still more focused on LUMN (website changes are now complete, including the summary).  However, I wanted to note the change in stance on Nokia.