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eMagin 2Q21 schedule and trade-focused previews & follow-ups ?3

11:44 03-Aug-21


eMagin has scheduled its second quarter report for the morning of August 12th.  1 analyst still follows the company estimating a loss of 3 cents per share from $7.7M of revenue, increasing to $8.2M this quarter.  I will do not plan to write about this unless there is some surprise, but review the call in an effort to determine whether or to continue covering the company myself or retire it to the public section.  Feedback on that point is welcome.

At the heart of the decision is whether technology or political decisions will determine which efforts succeed or fail.  Debt driven economies have pushed the balance towards politically dominated success, and that's behind the the board additions for Orbital and EbixCash.  However, sooner or later reality asserts itself, and it was in this context that I made my Texas comments on Clearway.  The company is managing to financially hedge the risk of further disruptions, but that will only work until the political rules change.  Clearway is very well managed and investor-friendly.  So I expect it will be able to adapt whenever policy does become clear.  However, that doesn't preclude the possibility of another PG&E-like disruption to the stocks.  Furthermore, current efforts may be delayed by key Republican senator Lindsey Graham testing positive for COVID even after being vaccinated, which is certainly negative for the market in the short term.  Similarly, my comments on Westport's upcoming earnings call are very short term and I should have made clear that I do not plan to write about the call unless there is a surprise.  Over the medium term, I think I've been clear that the company's engines are likely to be restricted to heavy long haul trucking, at best.  A completely unquantified Energy Recovery announcement on further waste water processing wins in China is similarly troubling, as I think it has as much or potential for technology "theft" as than earnings gain.  I will look for color in Thursday's call.

The long term energy transition is of much more interest to me, which points to Xebec, Golar and New Fortress; WTI has already moved right back down towards my $70 estimate, while natural gas is still at $4.  Beyond energy, I reiterate that all eyes will be on Powell's Jackson Hole speech, which is certain to be affected by Friday's jobs report.  Perversely, higher employment will bad for the market and vice versa.  In the meantime, the drop in BGCP makes it look like the surest long term opportunity to me, whereas the continued focus on yield and utilities makes LUMN best in the medium term.  Both of these are dwarfed by the annualized potential in MX in the short term.   Stay tuned.