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MVIS delisting plus currencies and telecoms ?2


As expected, MicroVision has received a delisting determination from Nasdaq and intends to request a hearing, which will postpone the action.  Anyone who hasn't heeded my increasingly strident warnings over the years probably has little motivation to sell now.  Many stocks actually rise after they go OTC.  That said, I've seen more evidence of competition than adoption for the Hololens 2, despite promotion.  Though AR holds long-term potential, I'd rather wait for a good price point on VUZI, if I were inclined to risk investing in AR at all.

Moving on to more immediate matters, the Pound returned to a 1-year high of almost $1.34 in the wake of the U.K. election, and native VOD shares rose briefly rose above 151 pence.  That in turn has pushed VOD ADRs back above $20.  The thing is, the euro rose more modestly to almost $1.12 and has held $1.11 very comfortably.  Currency speculation and related arbitrage is generally ephemeral.  Those who have held the ADRs for more than a year and wish to engage in tax loss harvesting might well be able to buy VOD back a better price than today.

I still like Vodafone as an investment, and there is some danger of immediate appreciation in the new year.  However, I think the fundamental factors in its favor are very long term.  For one thing, I suspect that one of the main motives behind the delay and structuring of Sprint+T-mobile is to prevent optimal bidding in the ongoing 5G auction.  Things should be clear by the time the smaller but strategically important mid-band auction comes up in June.  Both auctions are relevant to Resonant, and I see the latest FCC ruling to open up more spectrum for WiFi as positive for Nokia's open development strategy.  By contrast, valuing Vodafone on income and then taking advantage of the lack of American competition should take much longer to play out. 

Despite the year-end note, I also think currency will be an eventual a positive for Vodafone, especially if accompanied by some old-school central bank discipline in the old world.  Sweden and the Krona have shown a tendency to lead Europe on interest rates, and the central bank there is dispensing with its negative rate policy.  Switzerland is currently resisting similar pressure, but only for as long as the E.U. hangs on to its broken policy.  The death of negative rates can't come too soon for me, but the E.U. will have to balance such a move with liquidity over several years.  If Brexit negotiations push it to other labor and other reforms, there might yet be some real hope.