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MVIS pre-earnings market dynamics ?2

09:42 21-Apr-16


Following up on MicroVision earnings, scheduled for the 27th, I've noted some unusual market dynamics. The nominal shorted float accelerated its declining trend at the end of March, falling by over a quarter!  Yet the rebate rate has remained very high at just over 25%, signaling possibly renewed shorting.  Furthermore, there are large open call positions of 2053 and 3786 at the $2 and $3 strikes, respectively, with further interest at other strikes, none of which are not offset by sizable put positions.  That represents well over half a million shares, which is more than 3 times the average volume for the last ten days, and twice the 90 day average volume.  That wouldn't be so exceptional in conjunction with earnings on its own, and call buyers are often not smart money. Nonetheless, the overall picture is rather unusual.

MVIS has not historically moved much on earnings reports, though the last two fourth quarter reports were BIG exceptions.   Taken altogether, the data above makes me think that this report could be another one of those big exceptions, particularly if there is an upside fundamental surprise.