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ExOne 4Q15 presentation -4

I've spent the morning going over ExOne's presentation for the upcoming conference call, at 8:30.  I will certainly listen to that, but I would not be surprised if it fails to add anything of further import.  The presentation shows a grim financial picture forming, which is pretty much in-line with what I've written previously.  The only bright spots are:
  • management predicts interest from the automotive sector
  • an order for 1 more Exerial machine was received
  • prior build out of service centers is complete, which drastically reduces CapEx
Despite the reduced capital expenditures, the presentation affirms my view that the company is headed for a capital crisis in a year or so.  No seasoned investor who actually looks at the books could miss this, and given the seasonality of the business and lack of quantified financial guidance, the next few reports could be every bit as bad as last year's.   Management's track record for predicting revenue makes it hard to have any faith that automotive sales will materialize in time.  Thus, I think the only thing holding XONE up at present is short-term market dynamics, and that a crisis in the stock price is likely to come much sooner than the actual capital crisis.  I doubt I could have anything constructive to say to anyone who doesn't use the current short squeeze to reduce any remaining exposure to XONE. Yet at the same time, my experience with institutional investing outfits leaves no viable strategies for individual investors to short a stock with a double-digit rebate rate.

Again, I will, of course, listen to the conference call, but will only write further if there is some surprise.