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InvenSense takeaways from the Apple report +4

Apple reported revenue of $58b, and 69% of that was from iPhones.  Since the average iPhone price was $659, I calculate that 60b iPhones were sold, right at the high end of estimates. 

That pretty much causes me to throw out my lowest projection of 15 cents.  I now think that it's hard to see how InvenSense earns less than 18 cents per share as a base case, and it could easily be in the 20s. 

Things that could be wrong with my thinking, in order of likelihood:
  • InvenSense was paid by Apple for something other than parts in the last two quarters (design work on the Watch gyro chip?).
  • The supply agreement is very non-standard and functions on a sliding price scale or featured large pre-payments by Apple.
  • InvenSense encounters some manufacturing or other operational problem.

I don't see any of these as very likely.  Market sentiment is always harder to predict.  The Watch, which has not garnered any initial results worth truly bragging about, remains a negative, but I'm still optimistic about earnings on the afternoon of May 4th.