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BGC outlook, OLED TV developments, and more Polestar ?4

20:38 30-Dec-21


BGC affirmed the guidance given with its 3Q21 results this evening.  It will be interesting to see if the share count trend can affect the EPS calculation I provided in that note.

Yesterday, LG Display announced that it will be shifting all of its OLED TV production in Paju, Korea and in Guangzhou, China to its EX technology starting in 2Q22.  It claims brightness has increased up to 30% over "conventional OLED displays" which I think means its basic lineup.  In technology terms, this is a step that I was looking forward to almost 9 years in the third article published: the improvement of blue emitters.  The deuterium approach being used has been around for nearly that long, but LG only began using these EVO panels its flagship G1 commercial model over the past year citing a 20% increase in brightness.  Though LG claims to have worked out the extraction of deuterium from water, a (translated) Korean technical interview reveals DuPont as the source, and a more recent article indicates that is still the case.

It's been four and a half years since I've written a note focused on LG Display.  LPL was $17 then and gradually lost 3/4 of its value before bottoming.  This serves as notice that I am considering adding LPL analysis back to the private section of the website, but a few questions still need to be answered first, probably at the upcoming CES.  More details can be found in the subscriber section.

Switching gears, I'll also note that our query to Polestar support was efficiently and professionally handled, with a projection that all cars in the states should have their software updated by mid-January thereby enabling the Vivaldi browser.  Those in a hurry can schedule a visit to a service center for the update, but we have no such plans.

What will definitely take time is to see to what degree Polestar encounters the manufacturing problems that are bothering Tesla.  Polestar would presumably rely on Volvo's resources for such operations, but brand image is priceless.  Anyone who's been reading my work will also understand why I've looked into Polestar's battery supply.  I am encouraged by the government involvement which enabled SK Innovation to open the first of its two Atlanta factories, which should ramp to mass production in the coming year.  I continue to think Geely will step back, at least on American manufacturing, and Volvo will take a larger hand as it inks plans with the Northvolt startup that I've tracked in conjunction with AES, Fluence, and ABB over the years.  All that remains is some closure on the SPAC and Build Back Better but that, like so much else, will have to wait for 2022.  Happy New Year everyone!