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thoughts on this morning's INVN movement ?1

11:07 30-Jan-15


A subscriber asks:
From your perspective do you see much downside from here?  I know if the overall market is down it may take INVN with it but in general it would seem the holding right at $15 or higher from here is reasonable to expect...do you agree?
Predicting short term market movements is guess work, and I'm already wrong about this morning.  Furthermore, while I do make market dynamic observations and am often correct, my experience with institutions tells me that short term predictions are a game that individual investors simply can not win against Big Money, for reasons alluded to in my Momentum Mechanism article.  The only defense for individual investors to take a long-term view and to avoid leverage with disciplined position sizes thus enabling volatility tolerance that most institutions are simply not capable of.  It's one of our few advantages, and something that's saved me from disaster several times.

So, I can really only say two things in answer:
  1. I do have concerns about the broader market, but am not ready to predict a breakdown any time soon.
  2. regardless of that I think INVN is undervalued and that it will show eventually.
I also note Imperial Capital has just upgraded INVN to buy with a price target of $20.  I expect more such, as the analysis sent earlier.