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Ebix, Yatra, Schlumberger and the virus ?3

09:57 21-May-20


Apparently quite a few readers still have small EBIX positions, so I will note that the company just filed an 8-K again extending the deadline for the Yatra merger by one more month to June 4th.  I wouldn't be particularly happy about this if I still held shares, but there is no press release, and I doubt the market will notice just yet.

Looking a little further out, I continue to worry about India.  Singapore is showing that even the most organized responses to COVID-19 still bear lingering danger and India is on the other end of the preparedness spectrum.  Here are my updated numbers including both:

Country Pop. Cases Case% Deaths Pop Mortality Case Mort Density Med. Age Urban
U.S. 331,002,651 1551853 0.4688% 93439 0.0282% 6.0211% 36 38 83%
Spain 46,754,778 232555 0.4974% 27888 0.0596% 11.9920% 94 45 80%
Italy 60,461,826 227364 0.3760% 32330 0.0535% 14.2195% 206 47 69%
Germany 83,783,942 178473 0.2130% 8144 0.0097% 4.5632% 240 46 76%
France 65,273,511 181700 0.2784% 28135 0.0431% 15.4843% 119 42 82%
Iran 83,992,949 126949 0.1511% 7183 0.0086% 5.6582% 52 32 76%
U.K. 67,886,011 249619 0.3677% 35786 0.0527% 14.3362% 281 40 83%
Belgium 11,589,623 55983 0.4830% 9150 0.0789% 16.3442% 383 42 98%
Turkey 84,339,067 152587 0.1809% 4222 0.0050% 2.7669% 110 32 76%
S. Korea 51,269,185 11122 0.0217% 264 0.0005% 2.3737% 527 44 82%
Netherlands 17,134,872 44647 0.2606% 5767 0.0337% 12.9169% 508 43 92%
Sweden 10,099,265 31523 0.3121% 3831 0.0379% 12.1530% 25 41 88%
NYC 8,300,000 178566 2.1514% 15277 0.1841% 8.5554% 10682 35.8 100%
S. Africa 59,308,690 18003 0.0304% 339 0.0006% 1.8830% 49 28 67%
Canada 37,742,154 81575 0.2161% 6150 0.0163% 7.5391% 4 41 81%
Finland 5,540,720 6443 0.1163% 304 0.0055% 4.7183% 18 43 86%
Ukraine 43,733,762 19706 0.0451% 579 0.0013% 2.9382% 75 41 69%
Japan 126,476,461 16385 0.0130% 771 0.0006% 4.7055% 347 48 92%
India 1,380,004,385 112442 0.0081% 3438 0.0002% 3.0576% 464 28 35%
New Zealand 4,822,233 1503 0.0312% 21 0.0004% 1.3972% 18 38 87%
Brazil 212,559,417 291579 0.1372% 18859 0.0089% 6.4679% 25 33 88%
Switzerland 8,654,622 30658 0.3542% 1892 0.0219% 6.1713% 219 43 74%
Singapore 5,850,342 29364 0.5019% 22 0.0004% 0.0749% 8358 42 N.A.

I doubt we'll see India's official numbers jump much, even after last night's cyclone note, but it's hard for me to cheer increased debt and a travel company acquisition at the moment. 

Oil continues to rise also, but I'd already warned that Washington's interference with the market could last in June.  I think that Schlumberger doing another round of restructuring is more indicative of the medium to long term outlook.  Similarly, though initial unemployment claims have been dropping, I think the number to watch will be how many get back to work in the coming months.  I am concerned that we will see continued claims maintain their climb as we progress through the summer.  Invest cautiously.