Nokia 4Q21 schedule and euro pre-earnings notes ?3

07:22 28-Jan-22

Nokia has scheduled its fourth quarter report for the morning of February 3rd.  The average of 8 analyst estimates comes to 13 cents of EPS from $7.5b of revenue, declining seasonally to $6.0b this quarter.  The company has made a strong push into services and is attempting to monetize its patent portfolio in the process.  With correction of the issues that Intel caused with its hardware platform now looking complete and next generation communications finally rolling out, I will be more interested in this report than other recent iterations.  However, with no dividend in sight and the dollar continuing to strengthen to €/$1.114, I view NOK ADRs as fairly valued at best even at recent lows around $5.30 and am happy to have resisted pulling the trigger on them so far.

There are plenty of other values out there, and though Europe has had a more rational pandemic responses than America for the most part, that has also delayed it doing anything to make its stagnant economies more dynamic and mobile.  Shell is already insulated by virtue of its industry and scale, and possibly I should have been more aggressive in my positioning for its value status.  However, its transition is slow and I'm willing to wait on potentially larger payout with XBC/XEBEF.  In the meantime, the world and markets are also looking in other directions, as shown by ABB raising its stake of In-Charge U.S. EV charging to 60%.  As a result, ABB ADRs are still not close to value territory. 

Apple confirmed both supply chain issues and earnings power, leaving us with a short to medium term American bias for a still leveraged market.  Equity futures there shifted from mildly positive to mildly negative as the world began reading about the latest Omicron mutations.  I think the market will get over that quickly, and given the geopolitically driven market dynamics, there is a good chance I will consolidate my comments on all three euro earnings together on the morning of the 3rd.