Fluence IPO plus Xebec & Golar 3Q21 schedules and GMLPF ex-date +4

09:43 28-Oct-21

AES Corp. has announced that Fluence shares should begin trading as FLNC today.  The $28 IPO price is at the high end of my positive expectations.  It values Fluence at about $4.7b.  AES Corp. owns 44% and has a market cap just over $17b, which puts its stake at over 10% of the current value.  I will keep an eye on FLNC, but have no plans to add shares soon.  I'm more interested in AES pricing as it sells off its stake.

Xebec has scheduled its third quarter report for the morning of November 11th.  The average of 5 analyst estimates comes to a loss of 2 Canadian cents per share from $34.9M of revenue increasing to $36.6M this quarter.  It's all about Biostream progress and financing for me.  It's possible this report will convince the market on that, but I wouldn't count on it.  In its Q&A so far, Shell forecasts 3rd party gas supply disruptions to continue through 1Q22.  Thus, I remain positive on XEBEF shares for the long term at prices anywhere near $2.

Golar has scheduled its third report for the morning of November 9th.  8 analysts cover the company and their estimates range widely, averaging out to a loss of 4 cents from $102M of revenue increasing to $114M.  I think many of these have not factored in recent updates.  However, I suspect that management will really have to detail future development plans to break the stock out of its improved range.

While I'm at it, I'll also document that the next GMLPF payment has a November 5th ex-date.  Liquidity in the preferred shares has been virtually non-existent, and the fact that New Fortress IR did not announce that directly tells me that they like it that way so that the company can redeem the debt a year from now.  For those who can get it, that represents a 16.4% return from the most recent price of $23.35.