Lumen OMIB, plus macro & hydrocarbon update +3

21:02 25-Aug-21

A Lumen Director purchased 5K shares on the open market on Monday at $11.97, thereby increasing his stake by 1.7%.  Nonetheless, this is a rare enough occurrence that it may make a difference in the stock, especially if it is followed up like last time.  Either way, I remain of the opinion that we're at the stage where self-interested management prefers the stock price high, unlike earlier in this charade, and more importantly, I agree that it is a value below the middle of my range, especially with Thursday being the last day to own shares in order to receive the next dividend.  It will be interesting to see how LUMN share pricing develops next week.

Also of interest this week so far is the movement in oil.  Brent and WTI are back to bracketing my $70 estimate, but the spread has steadily increased from $2.50 a week ago to $4 this afternoon.  That bears watching as much or more than Friday's speech.  For the record, domestic natural gas is in holding pattern just below $4.  Conversation with Xebec indicates they will not license Biostream technology, saying the company has little competition and expects to lead the market.  That stance would only make sense if it also expects to be bought.  India is also set to increase its imports by 12%.  Golar and New Fortress should now be in a position to participate in the next round of action as the country more than doubles its consumption by 2030.  In Europe, TTF has also been bouncing back toward recent highs as Germany requires Nord Stream 2 to engage in open bidding for its pipeline capacity.

Elsewhere in politics, Gensler at the SEC talked tough on Chinese stocks, saying any that do not submit to audits will be de-listed by 2024.  I see this simply as pressure politics, but doubt the Chinese care so much at this point; as already discussed, things should pivot dramatically one way or the other in the coming two months.