vote projection ?3

10:07 04-Nov-20

My own projection on the voting data so far is that Biden will win the White House and we will still have a split Congress.  The Senate is really too close to call, though.

I see a Biden win as a mild long term positive for BGC, Westport, Xebec and Covanta, though the first is the only one I see as buyable, and only for those with plenty of patience.  A split Congress would be mildly positive for Google and negative for Virtu, in my eyes, but I still see VIRT as undervalued.  Furthermore, don't be surprised if the election is contested, which would be a short-term positive for VIRT, due to a little added volatility.

What this morning's market reaction really shows, though, is that the Fed continues to be the only game that matters.  Earnings will still matter to some extent, but mostly on an individual stock basis, which suits a fundamental investor like me just fine.  We'll see what Lumen has to say tonight.