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MicroVision 1Q19 schedule and the Sargasso market ?3
15:54 12-Apr-19
MicroVision
has scheduled
it first quarter report for Wednesday morning, April 17th. The
average of 4 analyst estimates comes to a loss of 8 cents per
share on $1.9M, with revenue multiplying to $5.4M in the current
quarter. I think a failure to affirm that ramp could be deadly
for MVIS, but the stock's ability to maintain pricing over the $1
Nasdaq minimum looks suspicious to me. In that context, I note
that Uber has just
filed to IPO and that the timing of its legal battles with
WayMo make it seem credible that Uber is the client for
MicroVision's LiDAR product. The possibilities between a
cash-flush company with an ultra-aggressive development culture
and a contractor in need run the gamut, but the positive ones are
all short-term; in the longer term, I'd view Uber almost as
negatively as MicroVision in light of the competition.
Speculation of this (admittedly tenuous) caliber seems to be all
that's keeping the market going in the face of ongoing regulatory
stagnation. That feels dangerous to me given that there are very
few good values out there apart from BGCP and VOD. The latter
should see initial regulatory clearance on its Liberty deal by
June 3rd, as well as some movement on its merger in an
increasingly difficult
Australian market any day now. The company is continuing to
improve competition in Spain with the addition
of an unlimited data plan next week. The current malaise in VOD
could last a while longer, but Liberty and the dividend should be
substantial catalysts as we progress through next month.
I'm less sanguine about the prospects for the overall market when
the calm ceases. An impending
agreement with China may generate some initial market cheer, but
delaying Chinese compliance on the thornier issues means that
country got almost everything it really
wanted. Don't be surprised if things are more troublesome
as we proceed
to negotiations with Europe, though others are in weaker
positions. I look forward to earnings and the elections now underway
in India as the few potential positives offsetting an increasing
sense of dread. Brexit may be extended to Halloween in theory,
but I suspect trick or treat comes much sooner for the market and
I'm in the process of accumulating a little dry powder just in
case.