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MicroVision 1Q19 schedule and the Sargasso market ?3


MicroVision has scheduled it first quarter report for Wednesday morning, April 17th.  The average of 4 analyst estimates comes to a loss of 8 cents per share on $1.9M, with revenue multiplying to $5.4M in the current quarter.  I think a failure to affirm that ramp could be deadly for MVIS, but the stock's ability to maintain pricing over the $1 Nasdaq minimum looks suspicious to me.  In that context, I note that Uber has just filed to IPO and that the timing of its legal battles with WayMo make it seem credible that Uber is the client for MicroVision's LiDAR product.  The possibilities between a cash-flush company with an ultra-aggressive development culture and a contractor in need run the gamut, but the positive ones are all short-term; in the longer term, I'd view Uber almost as negatively as MicroVision in light of the competition.

Speculation of this (admittedly tenuous) caliber seems to be all that's keeping the market going in the face of ongoing regulatory stagnation.  That feels dangerous to me given that there are very few good values out there apart from BGCP and VOD.  The latter should see initial regulatory clearance on its Liberty deal by June 3rd, as well as some movement on its merger in an increasingly difficult Australian market any day now.  The company is continuing to improve competition in Spain with the addition of an unlimited data plan next week.  The current malaise in VOD could last a while longer, but Liberty and the dividend should be substantial catalysts as we progress through next month.

I'm less sanguine about the prospects for the overall market when the calm ceases.  An impending agreement with China may generate some initial market cheer, but delaying Chinese compliance on the thornier issues means that country got almost everything it really wanted.  Don't be surprised if things are more troublesome as we proceed to negotiations with Europe, though others are in weaker positions.  I look forward to earnings and the elections now underway in India as the few potential positives offsetting an increasing sense of dread.  Brexit may be extended to Halloween in theory, but I suspect trick or treat comes much sooner for the market and I'm in the process of accumulating a little dry powder just in case.