Alphabet 3Q22 results and more -3

09:12 26-Oct-22

Microsoft guidance was below consensus and LG Display posted some very poor results overnight, doubling the estimated loss per share on $4.74b of revenue.  It will be restructuring its business and ending LCD production altogether.  However, Visa's results showed that global consumers are being forced to spend on many things.  Furthermore, the Euro is now slightly above parity with the dollar.  That much argues for defensive positioning rather than an immediate outright crash.

Mobileye priced its IPO at $21, validating my expectations of demand for the IPO.  If the 6.15M share over-allotment is used, Intel could net over $900M.  I'll keep an eye on how MBLY trades going forward also.  Today is the last day to buy INTC before earnings.

Finally, Akoustis has announced another 3 WiFi-6E design wins, one of which is expected to ship this year, while the other two follow in March & August of 2023.  Traders might be more interested in the 16% jump of AKTS to almost $3 yesterday.  As near as I can tell that was due to some yahoos misreading this press release.

The CFO has just stated that she sees the pullback in advertiser spending continuing.  Therefore Google will continue to slow its hiring, which will become more apparent in 2023.  For the record, analysts expected $1.38 of EPS from $79.5b for the fourth quarter, but Porat offered no quantified guidance.  Analyst questions so far imply skepticism that there is any accountability.  I think my observation on the complete lack of support for Google consumer products could be starting to bleed into skepticism over the value of advertising with Google, and upper management's ability to have any real insight into such massive operations.  GOOG has taken another leg down, and while I will continue to try sifting winners from loser, I do see this as reason to accelerate the accumulation of dry powder for deployment around the turn of the year.

On 10/25/22 17:17, Esekla wrote:

Alphabet has just published earnings:

• $1.06 of EPS misses by 19 cents
• from $69.1b of revenue, which misses by $1.5b

I had not planned to comment on the report at all, but Microsoft earnings have also disappointed, to a lesser extent.  Apple reports after the bell on Thursday.  Per last week's charts, I was expecting a bit of a short term market bounce, coinciding with short-sighted market punditry.  Both Google & Microsoft provide guidance as part of their conference calls.  I am listening to the former now.  If that winds up being downbeat, the bounce may wind up being more short-lived than I thought.

I will still focus on Intel's earnings report on Thursday night, and Gelsinger has confirmed my thoughts about the point of the Mobileye IPO not being an immediate capital raise.  MBLY should trade this week, and there have been rumors that it is pricing above range.

While I'm at it, eMagin reported preliminary revenue of $7.5+/-0.1M and an order backlog of $16.6M.  This could put it back around breakeven for the bottom line.  The stock rose over 20% to top the $1  mark.  Official results will come on November 10th, but nobody still follows the company.  I will only write again if appropriate.

Similarly LG Display's results should come overnight.  The lone analyst publishing estimates calls for a loss of 37 cents per share from $4.9b of revenue, rising to $5.3b for the holiday quarter.  I abandoned LPL a quarter ago, and rightly so.  I will follow up if it shows any evidence of a consumer rebound, though.

So far GOOG is down 6%, but that is merely revisiting recent lows.  The euro had nearly returned to dollar parity, and it is holding up so far.  I had long warned against investment in the global mega-caps and will follow up if I see a need to accelerate gathering dry powder ahead of the holidays.  At a minimum, though, these results will serve as a reminder to be cautious about any sustained market rebound.